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Chapter 0: EG.3 Solution

Working problems is a crucial part of learning mathematics. No one can learn topology merely by poring over the definitions, theorems, and examples that are worked out in the text. One must work part of it out for oneself. To provide that opportunity is the purpose of the exercises.
James R. Munkres
Let be the free group with two generators and . Start at time 0 with the unit element 1, the empty word. At each second multiply the current word on the right by one of the four elements , , , , choosing each with probability (independently of previous choices). The choices at times 1 to 9 will produce the reduced word of length 3 at time 9. Prove that the probability that the reduced word 1 ever occurs at a positive time is 1/3, and explain why it is intuitively clear that (almost surely)
The length of the reduced word can be thought of as Markov chain Let be the probability of ever returning to state . Then, since after the first step the length is , must satisfy or
Let ( ) be the probability of reaching state from state in at most (in any number of) steps. Let ( ) be the corresponding events. Then, as it is easy to see, , and, hence, . So, if we show that for all , then we will show that . For this, suppose that , , solve the system Then, for all . Indeed, and It remains to note that indeed solves the system.
Intuitively the last statement of the problem is clear because at each step (unless when the current word is empty, which happens only finitely often with probability ) the length is increased by with probability , and decreased by with probability , so on average it increases by . A bit more formally, let be the word length after steps. Consider i.i.d. where , . Let . Then, we can interpret . By the strong LLN, . Further, if , then and . Therefore, with probability , only a finite number of is positive (intuitively, we return to only a finite number of times with probability ), and, hence, with probability .